Tag: Recycle

First Looks: The LADWP 2015 Draft UWMP – Hiding the Shortage

Published / by dcoffin / Leave a Comment

After spending a few weeks paging through the just released LADWP 2015 Draft Urban Water Management Plan, my immediate conclusion is that the plan is a thinly disguised effort to hide the city’s low water supply levels from the planning process to protect development.

This draft, like past UWMP’s, continues to project levels of water in all supply categories that the department does not have access to and it continues to assert access to water in categories that aren’t really a supply such as Conservation and Harvesting.

California law requires that utilities update the UWMP every five years to demonstrate long term water supply availability before approving new projects. This task has become tougher to prove as the regions grow and various interests throughout the state assert their rights to the state’s water supply. The department compounds the problem even further when it reports to planners and developers that there is sufficient water for growth despite the shortage.

In 2010 the LADWP found that totaling up aqueduct, groundwater, recycled water and MWD water was no longer adding up to the total supplies it needed to show as evidence of sufficient growth. To solve this problem, it began to look for new ways to produce water. Some categories were real such as stormwater capture and indirect potable reuse but other categories were simply fuzzy water meant to artificially raise the total supply using paper water.

A Line-by-Line look at the Future Water Supply Projections

The following is a line by line look at the supply projections in the draft's Service Area Reliability Assessments table. I’ll show where the real water is and what’s vulnerable to challenge.

Conservation

I’m going to be blunt. Conservation is not a supply. Conservation should be used to lower the baseline demand and from there, the department should demonstrate how it will meet that. However, the department uses Conservation as a supply to merely to bump up the total supply figures shown in the Service Area Reliability Assessment tables to present a UWMP that's favorable to planning documents.

conserv

 

The department’s 2015 draft shows Conservation as an existing or planned supply that will contribute up to 125,800 Af/y to the city’s water portfolio. But simply put, this is ‘paper water’.  This is done to hide a portion of the total shortfall the department doesn’t want seen in Environmental Impact Reports that are attached to projects for review by the planning department.

There is a simple test to see if Conservation (or any other category of water) is real water or imaginary water. The 2009 California Water Plan Update describes ‘paper water’ as water that “utilities claim they have access to, but is difficult or impossible to access for various reasons”. 

Using that definition in our test, if we eliminate all of the city’s real incoming sources of water such as the aqueduct, groundwater, recycled water, stormwater, and MWD water, and leave the city with only Conservation, how much water would the city have access to and available to use?

None. The leftover 125,800 AF of 'water' the LADWP claims it has access to is not accessible.  You can’t wash your hands with this water and you cannot sip it from a glass. Consequently, it's paper water and not a supply.

2015CSVPaperAsserting that ‘Conservation’ is a water supply allows the department to manipulate the UWMP's supply projections, making it appear that the city’s total available supply will be 611,800 Af/y in 2020 and grow as high as 675,700 Af/y by the year 2040.

However, when we remove this imaginary water from the table, the departments total projections fall to a dismal 536,370 Af/y and over time it grows to just 600,770 AF/y by 2040. This is would fall more in line with the city’s historical supply.

I’m sure the department sees another benefit to asserting that Conservation is a supply. It doesn’t have to report the actual results like it does with real water from the aqueduct, groundwater, MWD, and recycled water which are all measured as they enter the water system.

Putting Conservation on the supply side of the equation creates a fuzzy math scenario of future water supply that does not belong in documents that rely on the UWMP. The department is basically saying, ‘IF the public reduces it gallons per capita daily by 50%, that’s like increasing the supply to 638,235 AF/y’ or ‘IF the public could meet 100% of the city’s projected conservation level, that would be the same as reaching 675,100 AF/y.

Prior to 2010, the city had always deducted conservation savings from the baseline demand side and calculated the required supply from there. If it did this here, the projections would be in the range of 536,370 to 600,770 AF/y. The department would then have to provide a plan to explain how it will get the city to reduce its per capita supply from 130 gallons per day to just 95 gallons per day.

Aqueduct

aque

 

The next supply item in the planned supply table is the Los Angeles Aqueduct. Sadly, the LADWP no longer finds William Mulholland’s engineering marvel worthy of top billing anymore. Instead it appears that the department wants optics on something called ‘Conservation’ in the UWMP even though that’s not real water like the aqueduct. It’s important to note that the Los Angeles Aqueduct continues to be the city’s largest owned producer of water in the city’s supply portfolio.

2015AquPaper2007This item in the Draft 2015 UWMP uses paper water in the Los Angeles Aqueduct projections to hide 68,030 to 85,730 AF/y of the city’s total supply shortage.

The draft does this by seriously over estimating how much water is available through the aqueduct.

It’s nothing new however. The departments past UWMP’s had projected upwards of 380,000 acre feet of water per year entering the system. This draft cites up to 293,400 Af/y is still far more than the aqueduct’s actual average supply of just 207,670 AF/y between 2007 and 2012.  (To be fair, I’ve purposely excluded the last three years due to the recent drought.)

There is no reason to believe that future aqueduct supplies will average higher than 227,000 Af/y even if the department is able to lower the amount of water needed to mitigate Owens Basin dust levels.

Groundwater

ground

 

The next major source of water supply and third on the list is Groundwater. Like every UWMP before it, the Draft 2015 UWMP continues citing far more access to groundwater than the department really has access to.

2015GWPaperThis conclusion is made by comparing the actual measured groundwater supply that has averaged just 74,390 AF/y between 2000 and 2015 with the departments Draft 2015 UWMP projections of 112,670 to 114,070 AF/y. Anything more than 74,390 AF/y is paper water which is used to bump up the total supply and hide the departments shortage in planning documents.

From a historical perspective, there is simply no evidence that the department will meet the projections they cite in the current draft. Claims of over 100,000 AF/y have been made in every iteration of the departments UWMP since 1985.

Recycled Water – Irrigation and Industrial

Recycled water is next in the planned supply table in the Draft 2015 UWMP. The department split Recycled water is split between two sub categories back in 2010 and that continues today. They are ‘Irrigation and Industrial Use’ and ‘Groundwater Replenishment’.


Irr

 

Irrigation and Industrial Use, better known as purple pipe is expected to contribute 19,800 AF/y of water into the city water system by 2020 and increase to 45,400 AF/y by 2040. 2015RCYPaperHowever, the departments history of meeting purple pipe projections suggests that they will not come close to meeting these new projections either. Over the last eight years the department’s average has been just ~7,500 AF/y.

EIR’s produced between 2010 and 2015 have all claimed that by 2015, water recycled and distributed through purple pipe would be contributing 20,000 Af/y into the city’s water system.

However, the department missed that mark badly with only ~9,800 AF of measured supply by September of 2015.  Earlier UWMP’s promised even more water, citing that up to 29,000 AF/y would have been available by 2015.

Even given the chance that the LADWP might eke out at least 15,000 AF/y of purple pipe water, the Draft 2015 UWMP is effectively be hiding up to 30,400 AF/y of the city’s total supply shortage using paper water in this particular category.

Recycled Water – Groundwater ReplenishmentRepl

 

Our fifth line of the planned supply table is Groundwater Replenishment. This is not expected to begin contributing the city’s water portfolio until 2025. Groundwater Replenishment is a treated wastewater program known as Indirect Potable Reuse which is similar to Orange County’s successful IPR program.

If the department is successful at rolling out IPR, this may turn out to be a real supply. How much we actually see entering the system on a year to year basis remains to be seen.

Stormwater Capture – Harvesting

What was new to the 2010 UWMP but considered only a ‘potential supply’, Stormwater Capture has been undeservingly upgraded to a ‘planned supply’. It is split between two line items, Stormwater ‘Reuse’ and Stormwater ‘Recharge’.

harvest

 

Stormwater Reused is the sixth supply line item in the planned supply table. Also known as Capture and Reuse or Harvesting, it is another fuzzy water category consisting of Rain Barrels and Cisterns. The department claims that these components will be contributing to 400 AF/y to the city’s water system by 2020 and that will increase to 2,000 AF/y by 2040.

In the previous 6 years, the 2010 UWMP asserted that Harvesting would contribute 2,000 to 10,000 AF/y of water into the city’s water supply portfolio but none of that was ever reported.

Development projects throughout the city parroted that claim in their EIR’s but the department could never measure it nor report it.

Whether it’s the 2010 UWMP or the 2015 plan, this category fits the definition of paper water because the department has no direct access to it.

Rain barrels and cisterns are back yard, privately owned containers that do not have gages mounted to them that report back to the utility. There is no way the LADWP can tell if they are actually in use, whether they’ve collected rainwater or if they have been repurposed for other uses. I get the sense that they are keeping this category around mainly so that they can give away rain barrels to promote the conservation.  

The Draft 2015 UWMP uses paper water in the Stormwater Reuse category to hide 400 to 2,000 AF/y of the city’s total supply shortage.

(Correction: The graph and analysis in this section incorrectly cited the Single Dry Year table of 100 to 400 AF/y when Average Year Table was meant to be used.  The level of paper water in this section was raised to 400 to 2,000 AF/y - 3/3/2016 dcoffin) 

Stormwater Capture - Recharge

recharg

The seventh line item of the UWMP planned supply table is ‘Recharge’.  Over the years the city has relied on ‘natural recharge’ but this has severely decreased due to the city’s urbanization because as structures and roads were built over permeable soil.

The intent is to build an infrastructure that will capture up to 15,000 AF/y of water during intense rainwater events and allow it to infiltrate into to the ground much like natural recharge.

This may very well be another form of supply that is difficult to access given that is relies on rain events. For example, El Nino was thought that it would bring heavy rains to the Los Angeles area in the Winter/Spring of 2016 but that did not happen.

Recharge will be subject to the same meteorological events that groundwater pumping relies on and as noted earlier, groundwater pumping has never met the long term projections found in past UWMPs.  There is no guarantee that it will result in 15,000 Af/y supply until the program is in fully implemented and effects can be measured as it enters the city’s water system.  How much we actually see entering the system on a year to year basis remains to be seen.

MWD Water Purchases with Existing/Planned Supplies
MWD

 

‘MWD Water Purchases’ is an interesting category because the department has consistently ‘underestimated’ how much it will buy from the Metropolitan Water District.  This happens because as previously noted, the LADWP claims it has access to water it doesn’t have access to.  Sooner or later the department has to quietly make adjustments and purchase additional water from the MWD to make up for the shortage.

The 2015 projections are pretty stunning given that it represents a 68% drop from the 2010 UWMP and worse, an 80% drop from the real purchases. 

Given how much paper water is in this draft UWMP which includes the so-called ‘Conservation’, there is no evidence that the LADWP will be able to meet those projections and subsequently limit MWD purchases at this level unless Mayor Garcetti wants to deliberately deepen the city’s water supply shortage by plunging the city into a Phase IV or Phase V restrictions.   

Between 2000 to 2010, the LADWP projected it would be purchasing an average of 247,995 AF/y from the MWD. But during this time the actual average supply it purchased from the MWD during that time was 30% higher at 325,570 AF/y.

This clearly demonstrates that the LADWP has not been meeting its real water projections and that its projections are indeed full of paper water. The department’s MWD projections are simply not reliable.

Transfers

transfers

 

Over the last six years, projects working their way through the planning process cited in their EIR’s that 40,000 AF/y of Transfer water would be available to the city by 2015 along with other surplus water in the other categories. However, the department was not able to access this water that so we can firmly place this in the category of paper water.

With the water market turning increasingly bleak, the LADWP rightfully did not include Transfers in the Service Area Reliability Assessments table as a ‘Planned Supply’.  Instead it downgraded Transfers to a ‘Potential Supply’ but it still remains on the Service Area Reliability Assessments table making it ‘appear’ as if it is accessible.  

The chances that the department will have access to this water is fairly remote given that there no willing sellers in the Central Valley or Northern California and its like that the department would find itself bidding against the well-financed Metropolitan Water District.  

The $40 million spent by the LADWP on the Neenach Pumping Station Turnout Facility Project in the Antelope Valley doesn’t seem like a great investment today.

MWD Water Purchases with Existing/Planned Supplies and Transfers

MWDpotential

 

 

The tenth and last item in the Draft 2015 UWMP Services Area Reliability Assessment is an alternative MWD Water Purchase should the LADWP be able to secure contracts for water in the ‘Transfer’ category.  It states that if the LADWP were to be able to secure contracts for 40,000 AF/y of Transfer water, this would result in lower MWD purchases amounting to ~20,630 to 35,430 AF/y.

 

 

Purple Pipe Doesn’t Live Up to Hype

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LADWP water plans are generally more about perception than results and 'Purple Pipe' is certainly the poster child proving that.

Purple pipe is used to distribute non-potable recycled water and is often presented as one of the departments cornerstone resources to meeting the city's water supply demand since it frees up potable water that would have been used for irrigation or industrial use. Thumb through many of the DWP’s presentations and you'll find impressive glossy photos of purple pipe that suggest that it's been making big contributions to increasing the City of Los Angeles water supply. Even the Mayor and the city’s neighborhood councils are lulled into this group think.  

purple pipeHowever when perception meets gritty reality, purple pipes contribution to the city's water supply is simply underwhelming and not deserving of so much attention. Past LADWP water plans told us recycled water was supposed to deliver be delivering ~30,000 Af/y to the city by 2015. But instead the city's been getting an average of only 7,600 Af/y.

There are several reasons for this shortfall, the biggest being the same reason the city isn’t able to effectively replace its aging water mains. The immense cost of such an effort and the disruptive nature of digging up thousands of miles of city streets in a city that is already built out and paved over is prohibitive. The department says it would take 300 years to replace its crumbling water mains. Building a distribution network of purple pipe runs into the same problems of cost and disruption.

This leaves the department to choose routes where it can get the most bang for its buck. Generally this means it has to be a customer who can use lots of recycled water and is relatively near by the filtering plant. In the city's west side for example, only a few customers like LAX, Westchester Golf Course, Loyola Marymount and Playa Vista fall into that category.

Sure it would be nice to have purple pipe running alongside the city's water mains that finally connects up to every large commercial and residential complex but that's not going to happen.
recycle

The other reason for the lack of progress is that recycled water is primarily for irrigation and industrial use. In the 1980's the city's industrial use was ~30,000 Af/y but overtime this has fallen to an average of just 19,000 Af/y. The rest would go to city parks, golf courses and new commercial/residential developments that are close enough to filtering plants that makes it economically viable to tear out a few streets and lay new purple pipe.

This is not a growing customer segment that justifies the departments claim that it will increase recycled water to 42,000 Af/y by 2025 and 59,000 Af/y by 2035.

The WSA – Bringing Imaginary Water to L.A.’s Big Projects

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In a previous article I wrote that The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power was confronted with two conflicting demands that dates back to 1990. The department’s conflict is between providing enough water to city residents from a rapidly shrinking water supply that once averaged 680,000 Af/y and is now just over 610,000 Af/y and then also show evidence that the city’s water supply is growing to assure continued growth. 

By now most of the public is well aware that there is a water shortage and that the DWP has been furiously trying to reduce the city’s residential per capita consumption by bombarding the media with accounts of shortages, imposing emergency drought restrictions, ‘drought shaming’ residents into using as little water as possible, and even paying them to tear out lawns and substitute it with drought resistant landscaping.

What the public is not aware of is that the LADWP puts on a very different face when it comes to assessing demand and assuring water supply for large new projects that consume the equivalent of 500 units or more in its Water Supply Assessments also known as WSA’s. Performing a water supply assessment is required by state law for very large projects and the department has produced more than seventy of them since 2005.

You need water? We got the water! Step Right in line.

1444 unit SOLA Village ProjectThe DWP’s water assessments are akin to a Hollywood movie set whose front facing facades of old western towns look like the real thing but when you step through a door all you find is an empty lot.

Read through a WSA and you’ll be transported into a parallel world where there’s plenty of surplus water to support a projects demand for the next twenty years along with all the other planned future demand that don’t trigger water supply assessments. But look behind the report at the actual supply figures and you’ll find that like the old western town on the big screen, the WSA is a mere facade as well.

Let’s take a recent example of the large 1,444 unit downtown SOLA Village project that the LADWP recently recommended to the Board or Water and Power for approval. Keeping in mind that the City of Los Angeles is already reeling from a water shortage and has been since 1990, the DWP’s Water Resources Section concluded in the projects water supply assessment that “adequate water supplies will be available to meet the total additional water demand” and that the demand “can be met during normal, single-dry, and multi-dry water years” for the next 20 years!

The department came to this conclusion by citing water demand and supply forecasts from its own current Urban Water Management Plan. A practice that is allowed by the state but should bring to question the sincerity to the laws “Show Me the Water” hype.

unmetRCYThe city’s past water plans have always claimed to have access to amazing amounts of water but in reality its water that can never be delivered or touched. You’ll never be able to wash your hands with it or sip it from a glass. Its imaginary water destined only for the pages of WSA's and UWMP's that are used to approve projects by decision makers.

For instance, supporting the SOLA Village project, the WSA cites that over the next twenty years the department will be able to build up recycled water supplies “eight-fold” to an amazing 59,000 Af/y by 2035. The problem however is that they’ve made similar claims to this in every preceding water plan going back to 1990!

The 2010 and 2005 plans that are routinely cited in the city's WSA’s both stated that we would be enjoying 20,000 Af/y of recycled water by 2015! In reality though, we’ve only seen an average of 7,392 Af/y since 2005 and we missed the 2015 target by 13,000 AF or 4.2 billion gallons.

Touching on another source of water, the SOLA Village WSA goes on to claim that stormwater capture will increase the water supply by 25,000 AF. Stormwater capture while not new, has been getting a lot of press attention lately when it was singled out by the city as a promising groundwater recharge component that would increase supplies.

But stormwater capture along with groundwater is highly speculative and certainly not sustainable on a year-to-year basis given the whims of Mother Nature. We can only look at averages and the averages have never been good to WSA’s when you look at them historically.

Certainly the city could bump up groundwater recharge with larger catch basins but rain barrels? Seriously? The departments WSA suggests that 10,000 Af of the 25,000 AF total would be met by rain barrels and cisterns. It would take 65 million of those plastic 50 gallon barrels that cost residents about $100 to buy. I suspect that the DWP is perhaps leaning towards underground cisterns to capture some of that water. But how would we know? WSA doesn’t positively identify how many or where these cisterns will be located. It just throws out the claim. WSA’s are supposed to “Show Me the Water” as the law was named, not make empty promises.

unmetGWContinuing on empty promises, groundwater has always been the department’s go-to resource when you need to bump up imaginary water. The SOLA Village WSA benefits in this trend by citing wild groundwater claims that states the department will be able to deliver more than 100,000 AF year-after-year. However, so did literally every plan before it.

Since 1990 the DWP’s Water Systems Section has repeatedly claimed the city would be receiving an average of 100,000 AF or more each year but that was never met. The WSA doesn’t tell you that. The city’s average yield has been just 67,000 Af since 2000. The WSA also doesn’t tell you that. It doesn’t tell you that only three times since 1990 has it ever exceeded 100,000 AF. It doesn’t really tell you we really don’t have enough water for these projects.

Susceptible to Challenge                                                              

Given the way the department carelessly cites access to large sums of unobtainable water to shore up evidence of sufficient supply, this makes WSA susceptible to challenge. WSA’s are a requirement of SB 610 and SB 221 which are collectively known as the “Show Me the Water Laws” but  LADWP’s WSA’s plans have not done that since 1990.

The Paper Water Years – LA’s 1995 – 2000 Water Plans

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This is Part IV in a series describing L.A.’s water supply problems and the policies that produced it.

1995CoverIn Part III we saw how the city sought to maintain the 1985 baseline of ~175 gallons per capita daily in the 1990 UWMP while population estimates increased. As a result we saw the projected supply in the plan jump significantly from the previous plan. We also found that the DWP heavily leveraged the projected 1990 supply in the groundwater and recycled categories using water it had no chance of getting. These factors continued into the 1995-2000 UWMP's. 

The 1995 UWMP - L.A.'s 3rd Water Plan
The 1995 UWMP should best be known by the city’s acquiescence that water supply had its limits. Population estimates from the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) did not climb as dramatically as they had in the 1990 plan but the increase from 3.85 million to 4.25 million by 2015 (9%) was still the driving factor.

With future growth estimates continuing to drive the supply requirement of more water, DWP planners were forced to set a new precedent by reducing the per capita supply from 177 gallons per capita to 150 gallons acknowledging that less water would be coming through the Los Angeles Aqueduct due to recent court ordered restrictions of Mono Basin water and at current allocations, future growth would have demanded ridiculously large amounts of water that couldn’t be met.

1995GPC
Figure 1 - Big jump to reduce per capita supply

If the DWP planners tried to sustain the 177 gallons per day cited in the 1990 plan, the projected supply in the new plan would have shot up to 757,000 for 2000 and risen to 886,000 acre feet per year (Af/y) by 2015!

Historically though, reducing the per capita supply to 150 gallons per day per capita would not be enough. At this allocation the DWP suggested that it would have 695,000 Af/y by 2005 and could gradually increase that to 750,000 Af/y by 2015 (Figure 1). But in the years following the approval of the plan, the actual supply figures that came in would demonstrate the DWP's failure to achieve these projections suggesting that there was far too much paper water in the projections to be viable.

DWP planners accepted that less water was going to be available through the aqueduct system and reduced the aqueduct supply by 20,000 Af/y to 360,000 Af/y in the 1995 plan.

1995PW
Fig. 2 - 1995 Projections vr. Supply

To offset the loss of aqueduct water, DWP planners suggested that they could increase the already large projections of the 1990 plans and increase the availability of recycled water to 38,000 Af/y, and groundwater to 152,000 Af/y.

Through the years though, none of these figures would ever be achieved. Recycled water averaged a mere 2,300 Af/y and groundwater averaged just 87,000 Af/y proving the plan wasn’t working.

The historical significance of the 1995 plan was that the DWP would only muster up an average of 638,490 Af/y (Figure 2). Far less than the 750,000 Af/y that it promised. Because of the paper water fueled growing deficit, the DWP would start prodding the public into reducing its demand using such schemes as tiered pricing, washer rebate programs and require that all homes install low-flow toilets before resale.

The 2000 UWMP - L.A.'s 4th Water Plan

2000GPC
Figure 3 - Lower per capita and rising demand

L.A.'s fourth water plan might best be known as having to largest projected supply that the DWP said it could meet of any of the city's UWMP's. This monster projection occurred even as the department further reduced the gallons per capita daily water supply. The reasons were due to estimated population projections supplied by SCAG.

The new SCAG population estimates started out at 4,035,305 by 2005 population and would grow to 4,856,887 by 2020. These new population figures when figured into the new per capita allocations created a demand that would skyrocket to almost 800,000 Af/y.

The 2000 UWMP lowered the 'year 2005 supply per capita' of the previous plan from 154 to 150 gallons per day and from their it would ratchet down the consumption further to 147 gallons per day by 2020. (Figure 3)

But the lower allocations would still generate a sharp rise in demand. The DWP said it could supply 718,000 Af/y of water in 2010 and sharply increase in to 799,000 Af/y by 2020. The increase though didn't come from increased recycle and groundwater.

Figure 4 - 2000 Projection vr. Supply

Perhaps realizing that developing a recycled water system and pumping more groundwater was not paying the dividends they predicted earlier, the city ended its long standing resistance to relying on pricier MWD water and would ratchet up purchases of water from 200,000 to 298,650 Af/y which would nearly equal the aqueduct supply level.

Planners were forced to lower the recycled water projections 28% from 38,000 to 29,350 Af/y. Groundwater projections fell only slightly from 152,000 to 150,000 Af/y but aqueduct projections fell significantly from 360,000 Af/y to 321,000 Af/y.

The historical significance of the 2000 UWMP was that the DWP would only be able to deliver an average of 617,000 Af/y from 2000 to 2014 which was well under the promised 757,000 Af/y by 2015 and light years from the 799,000 Af/y it said it would have in 2020 to meet the city’s growth. (Figure 4)

NEXT:  2005 and 2010 UWMP's

Dissecting L.A’s Paper Water – Recycled

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One prominent member of the City of Los Angeles's 'paper water' portfolio is recycled water. Like L.A.'s groundwater supply, its Urban Water Management Plans between 1990 and 2005 had projected rapidly growing recycled water supplies that would never be realized.
Recycle Water Projections versus Actual Supply
Recycle Water Projections v. Actual Supply
The chart at the right plots the huge gap between the actual recycled water supply the city had access to and the anticipated supplies that each UWMP projected. The gap between the two is the paper water that would be used to as evidence that medium and high density projects going through the planning process would have sufficient water when in fact they didn't. For example when we look at the 1990 UWMP projections, the city expected that its program for recycle water supply would triple within 5 years and eventually provide the city with over 30,000 af/y in 2000. This never happened. When the following 1995 UWMP came out it didn't begin where the 1990 plan left off. If fact it would cite less water in 2000 than the '90 plan which suggests that the effort to increase recycled water was making no progress. Of course paper water being what it is, that plan would still suggest (with no factual basis) that recycled water would still triple, this time within 10 years and then more than quadruple to 38,000 af/y within 15 years. The next 2000 UWMP was no different, it would also start off with less water than the preceding plans had projected and then nearly quadruple within 15 years with supplies approaching 30,000 af/y.
Recycled water supply versus total supply
Recycled water supply v. total supply
Little progress meeting past targets The actual supply between 1985 and 2010 hasn't been nearly so grand as the city's expectations and glossy presentations that suggested that recycled water would help the city meet its needs.  The actual recycle water supply between 1995 and 2005 was so tiny at just 1,748 af/y and was barely perceptible on a chart. Between 2006 and 2014 the city's recycle supply would grow to just 6,410 af/y which is far below any of the past UWMP projections that ranged from 19,950 af/y to 38,000 af/y and light years behind the projected 850% increase now cited in the 2010 UWMP to 59,000 af/y by 2035. This huge gap between 'projected or anticipated supply' and 'actual supply' is an unfortunate characteristic of the city's water supply we would call paper water. It's a promise spanning 5 water plans and 25 years that was used to mischaracterize the city's supply to approve high density development. The gap has only widen between 1990 and 2015 and given the city's history of meeting its projections, I don't have much faith that it will meet the 59,000 af/y target it has set for 2035. If it could have met the much lower targets it had set in earlier plans, it would have done so by now. However the obstacles such as trying to roll out a citywide network of purple pipe were just to huge to overcome.

L.A.’s First Water Plans – The 1985 & 1990 UWMP

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In 1983 the State of California passed the Urban Water Management Plan Act that required water suppliers to provide a water plan every five years. 1985UWMPCoverThe Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP) is rich in information as it identifies the agencies sources of water (aqueduct, groundwater, imported), amounts of water available from these sources, methods of conveyance, current and future water uses, projected demand, current and future conservation methods, demographics, population density and growth, housing mix, commercial/industrial/governmental demand, etc. The importance of the UWMP is that it is used as a guideline for making public decisions concerning water and is cited in planning documents, water supply assessments. But the UWMP can also be seriously misused when 'paper water' is inserted into the plans which provides a misleading assessment of the water supply or when city officials simply rubber stamp the findings without any sort of reassessment given current water supply availability. The City of L.A.'s UWMP's are both fascinating and disappointing in that they paint a picture of great expectations, a long term failure to meet demand and worse, a misleading assessment of the city's true water supply. What follows is a retrospective look back at previous UWMP's. What we find is a blueprint to a permanent water deficit. The 1985 UWMP - L.A.'s First Water Plan
Figure 1
The 1985 UWMP was the first state mandated water plan published by LADWP. This first time report was an honest and useful assessment of the city's water supply at the time. The plan assumed the city would receive a constant 470,000 Af/y supply through the Los Angeles aqueduct, 103,000 Af/y of groundwater and a small but growing reliance on MWD water between 1986 through 2010. From a planning perspective the most important part of the UWMP are the tables that show the projected water requirements at 5, 10, 15, and 20 increments for average years. The tables break down how much water the city assumes it will receive through the aqueduct, local groundwater, MWD, and recycled water. It's important that these projections meet the actual supply 5, 10, 15, and 20 years later because they are used in environmental impact reports and water supply assessments as guidelines for future development. If the actual supply doesn't meet the projections then we can assume we are creating a water supply deficit. (more…)