Tag: MWD

LADWP’s Paper Water Leverages on MWD Supplies

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When the LADWP uses paper water, not only does it affect Los Angeles residents, it also impacts utilities and residents outside of the city. 'Paper water' is water that “utilities claim they have access to, but is difficult or impossible to access for various reasons”.

When the LADWP claims to have access to more city owned domestic water than it really has access to, that allows the department to understate how much water it needs from the Metropolitan Water District.   

MWD Makes up for LADWP Paper Water

Using paper water to prop up the perception of its domestic supply, the 2000 UWMP* suggested that the LADWP would only need to purchase and additional 3.53 million acre-feet of water between 2000 and 2015.

However the department was unable to follow through on its claims. Only 4 times in 16 years did the department meet its own projections. Over the other years it had to purchase 47% more water from the MWD amounting to 5.20 million acre-feet at a greater unit cost. 

This is one of the ways that the department hides the water shortage in the EIR's that work their way through the planning process to shield development.

Obviously this practice would impact the MWD's operations to store surplus water as a hedge against drought in its Diamond Valley Reservoir and at Lake Mead.

*I used the 2000 UWMP because it presented a larger sample size of MWD purchases than later plans would. Later UWMP's use paper water similarly.  

First Looks: The LADWP 2015 Draft UWMP – Hiding the Shortage

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After spending a few weeks paging through the just released LADWP 2015 Draft Urban Water Management Plan, my immediate conclusion is that the plan is a thinly disguised effort to hide the city’s low water supply levels from the planning process to protect development.

This draft, like past UWMP’s, continues to project levels of water in all supply categories that the department does not have access to and it continues to assert access to water in categories that aren’t really a supply such as Conservation and Harvesting.

California law requires that utilities update the UWMP every five years to demonstrate long term water supply availability before approving new projects. This task has become tougher to prove as the regions grow and various interests throughout the state assert their rights to the state’s water supply. The department compounds the problem even further when it reports to planners and developers that there is sufficient water for growth despite the shortage.

In 2010 the LADWP found that totaling up aqueduct, groundwater, recycled water and MWD water was no longer adding up to the total supplies it needed to show as evidence of sufficient growth. To solve this problem, it began to look for new ways to produce water. Some categories were real such as stormwater capture and indirect potable reuse but other categories were simply fuzzy water meant to artificially raise the total supply using paper water.

A Line-by-Line look at the Future Water Supply Projections

The following is a line by line look at the supply projections in the draft's Service Area Reliability Assessments table. I’ll show where the real water is and what’s vulnerable to challenge.

Conservation

I’m going to be blunt. Conservation is not a supply. Conservation should be used to lower the baseline demand and from there, the department should demonstrate how it will meet that. However, the department uses Conservation as a supply to merely to bump up the total supply figures shown in the Service Area Reliability Assessment tables to present a UWMP that's favorable to planning documents.

conserv

 

The department’s 2015 draft shows Conservation as an existing or planned supply that will contribute up to 125,800 Af/y to the city’s water portfolio. But simply put, this is ‘paper water’.  This is done to hide a portion of the total shortfall the department doesn’t want seen in Environmental Impact Reports that are attached to projects for review by the planning department.

There is a simple test to see if Conservation (or any other category of water) is real water or imaginary water. The 2009 California Water Plan Update describes ‘paper water’ as water that “utilities claim they have access to, but is difficult or impossible to access for various reasons”. 

Using that definition in our test, if we eliminate all of the city’s real incoming sources of water such as the aqueduct, groundwater, recycled water, stormwater, and MWD water, and leave the city with only Conservation, how much water would the city have access to and available to use?

None. The leftover 125,800 AF of 'water' the LADWP claims it has access to is not accessible.  You can’t wash your hands with this water and you cannot sip it from a glass. Consequently, it's paper water and not a supply.

2015CSVPaperAsserting that ‘Conservation’ is a water supply allows the department to manipulate the UWMP's supply projections, making it appear that the city’s total available supply will be 611,800 Af/y in 2020 and grow as high as 675,700 Af/y by the year 2040.

However, when we remove this imaginary water from the table, the departments total projections fall to a dismal 536,370 Af/y and over time it grows to just 600,770 AF/y by 2040. This is would fall more in line with the city’s historical supply.

I’m sure the department sees another benefit to asserting that Conservation is a supply. It doesn’t have to report the actual results like it does with real water from the aqueduct, groundwater, MWD, and recycled water which are all measured as they enter the water system.

Putting Conservation on the supply side of the equation creates a fuzzy math scenario of future water supply that does not belong in documents that rely on the UWMP. The department is basically saying, ‘IF the public reduces it gallons per capita daily by 50%, that’s like increasing the supply to 638,235 AF/y’ or ‘IF the public could meet 100% of the city’s projected conservation level, that would be the same as reaching 675,100 AF/y.

Prior to 2010, the city had always deducted conservation savings from the baseline demand side and calculated the required supply from there. If it did this here, the projections would be in the range of 536,370 to 600,770 AF/y. The department would then have to provide a plan to explain how it will get the city to reduce its per capita supply from 130 gallons per day to just 95 gallons per day.

Aqueduct

aque

 

The next supply item in the planned supply table is the Los Angeles Aqueduct. Sadly, the LADWP no longer finds William Mulholland’s engineering marvel worthy of top billing anymore. Instead it appears that the department wants optics on something called ‘Conservation’ in the UWMP even though that’s not real water like the aqueduct. It’s important to note that the Los Angeles Aqueduct continues to be the city’s largest owned producer of water in the city’s supply portfolio.

2015AquPaper2007This item in the Draft 2015 UWMP uses paper water in the Los Angeles Aqueduct projections to hide 68,030 to 85,730 AF/y of the city’s total supply shortage.

The draft does this by seriously over estimating how much water is available through the aqueduct.

It’s nothing new however. The departments past UWMP’s had projected upwards of 380,000 acre feet of water per year entering the system. This draft cites up to 293,400 Af/y is still far more than the aqueduct’s actual average supply of just 207,670 AF/y between 2007 and 2012.  (To be fair, I’ve purposely excluded the last three years due to the recent drought.)

There is no reason to believe that future aqueduct supplies will average higher than 227,000 Af/y even if the department is able to lower the amount of water needed to mitigate Owens Basin dust levels.

Groundwater

ground

 

The next major source of water supply and third on the list is Groundwater. Like every UWMP before it, the Draft 2015 UWMP continues citing far more access to groundwater than the department really has access to.

2015GWPaperThis conclusion is made by comparing the actual measured groundwater supply that has averaged just 74,390 AF/y between 2000 and 2015 with the departments Draft 2015 UWMP projections of 112,670 to 114,070 AF/y. Anything more than 74,390 AF/y is paper water which is used to bump up the total supply and hide the departments shortage in planning documents.

From a historical perspective, there is simply no evidence that the department will meet the projections they cite in the current draft. Claims of over 100,000 AF/y have been made in every iteration of the departments UWMP since 1985.

Recycled Water – Irrigation and Industrial

Recycled water is next in the planned supply table in the Draft 2015 UWMP. The department split Recycled water is split between two sub categories back in 2010 and that continues today. They are ‘Irrigation and Industrial Use’ and ‘Groundwater Replenishment’.


Irr

 

Irrigation and Industrial Use, better known as purple pipe is expected to contribute 19,800 AF/y of water into the city water system by 2020 and increase to 45,400 AF/y by 2040. 2015RCYPaperHowever, the departments history of meeting purple pipe projections suggests that they will not come close to meeting these new projections either. Over the last eight years the department’s average has been just ~7,500 AF/y.

EIR’s produced between 2010 and 2015 have all claimed that by 2015, water recycled and distributed through purple pipe would be contributing 20,000 Af/y into the city’s water system.

However, the department missed that mark badly with only ~9,800 AF of measured supply by September of 2015.  Earlier UWMP’s promised even more water, citing that up to 29,000 AF/y would have been available by 2015.

Even given the chance that the LADWP might eke out at least 15,000 AF/y of purple pipe water, the Draft 2015 UWMP is effectively be hiding up to 30,400 AF/y of the city’s total supply shortage using paper water in this particular category.

Recycled Water – Groundwater ReplenishmentRepl

 

Our fifth line of the planned supply table is Groundwater Replenishment. This is not expected to begin contributing the city’s water portfolio until 2025. Groundwater Replenishment is a treated wastewater program known as Indirect Potable Reuse which is similar to Orange County’s successful IPR program.

If the department is successful at rolling out IPR, this may turn out to be a real supply. How much we actually see entering the system on a year to year basis remains to be seen.

Stormwater Capture – Harvesting

What was new to the 2010 UWMP but considered only a ‘potential supply’, Stormwater Capture has been undeservingly upgraded to a ‘planned supply’. It is split between two line items, Stormwater ‘Reuse’ and Stormwater ‘Recharge’.

harvest

 

Stormwater Reused is the sixth supply line item in the planned supply table. Also known as Capture and Reuse or Harvesting, it is another fuzzy water category consisting of Rain Barrels and Cisterns. The department claims that these components will be contributing to 400 AF/y to the city’s water system by 2020 and that will increase to 2,000 AF/y by 2040.

In the previous 6 years, the 2010 UWMP asserted that Harvesting would contribute 2,000 to 10,000 AF/y of water into the city’s water supply portfolio but none of that was ever reported.

Development projects throughout the city parroted that claim in their EIR’s but the department could never measure it nor report it.

Whether it’s the 2010 UWMP or the 2015 plan, this category fits the definition of paper water because the department has no direct access to it.

Rain barrels and cisterns are back yard, privately owned containers that do not have gages mounted to them that report back to the utility. There is no way the LADWP can tell if they are actually in use, whether they’ve collected rainwater or if they have been repurposed for other uses. I get the sense that they are keeping this category around mainly so that they can give away rain barrels to promote the conservation.  

The Draft 2015 UWMP uses paper water in the Stormwater Reuse category to hide 400 to 2,000 AF/y of the city’s total supply shortage.

(Correction: The graph and analysis in this section incorrectly cited the Single Dry Year table of 100 to 400 AF/y when Average Year Table was meant to be used.  The level of paper water in this section was raised to 400 to 2,000 AF/y - 3/3/2016 dcoffin) 

Stormwater Capture - Recharge

recharg

The seventh line item of the UWMP planned supply table is ‘Recharge’.  Over the years the city has relied on ‘natural recharge’ but this has severely decreased due to the city’s urbanization because as structures and roads were built over permeable soil.

The intent is to build an infrastructure that will capture up to 15,000 AF/y of water during intense rainwater events and allow it to infiltrate into to the ground much like natural recharge.

This may very well be another form of supply that is difficult to access given that is relies on rain events. For example, El Nino was thought that it would bring heavy rains to the Los Angeles area in the Winter/Spring of 2016 but that did not happen.

Recharge will be subject to the same meteorological events that groundwater pumping relies on and as noted earlier, groundwater pumping has never met the long term projections found in past UWMPs.  There is no guarantee that it will result in 15,000 Af/y supply until the program is in fully implemented and effects can be measured as it enters the city’s water system.  How much we actually see entering the system on a year to year basis remains to be seen.

MWD Water Purchases with Existing/Planned Supplies
MWD

 

‘MWD Water Purchases’ is an interesting category because the department has consistently ‘underestimated’ how much it will buy from the Metropolitan Water District.  This happens because as previously noted, the LADWP claims it has access to water it doesn’t have access to.  Sooner or later the department has to quietly make adjustments and purchase additional water from the MWD to make up for the shortage.

The 2015 projections are pretty stunning given that it represents a 68% drop from the 2010 UWMP and worse, an 80% drop from the real purchases. 

Given how much paper water is in this draft UWMP which includes the so-called ‘Conservation’, there is no evidence that the LADWP will be able to meet those projections and subsequently limit MWD purchases at this level unless Mayor Garcetti wants to deliberately deepen the city’s water supply shortage by plunging the city into a Phase IV or Phase V restrictions.   

Between 2000 to 2010, the LADWP projected it would be purchasing an average of 247,995 AF/y from the MWD. But during this time the actual average supply it purchased from the MWD during that time was 30% higher at 325,570 AF/y.

This clearly demonstrates that the LADWP has not been meeting its real water projections and that its projections are indeed full of paper water. The department’s MWD projections are simply not reliable.

Transfers

transfers

 

Over the last six years, projects working their way through the planning process cited in their EIR’s that 40,000 AF/y of Transfer water would be available to the city by 2015 along with other surplus water in the other categories. However, the department was not able to access this water that so we can firmly place this in the category of paper water.

With the water market turning increasingly bleak, the LADWP rightfully did not include Transfers in the Service Area Reliability Assessments table as a ‘Planned Supply’.  Instead it downgraded Transfers to a ‘Potential Supply’ but it still remains on the Service Area Reliability Assessments table making it ‘appear’ as if it is accessible.  

The chances that the department will have access to this water is fairly remote given that there no willing sellers in the Central Valley or Northern California and its like that the department would find itself bidding against the well-financed Metropolitan Water District.  

The $40 million spent by the LADWP on the Neenach Pumping Station Turnout Facility Project in the Antelope Valley doesn’t seem like a great investment today.

MWD Water Purchases with Existing/Planned Supplies and Transfers

MWDpotential

 

 

The tenth and last item in the Draft 2015 UWMP Services Area Reliability Assessment is an alternative MWD Water Purchase should the LADWP be able to secure contracts for water in the ‘Transfer’ category.  It states that if the LADWP were to be able to secure contracts for 40,000 AF/y of Transfer water, this would result in lower MWD purchases amounting to ~20,630 to 35,430 AF/y.

 

 

The Paper Water Years – LA’s 1995 – 2000 Water Plans

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This is Part IV in a series describing L.A.’s water supply problems and the policies that produced it.

1995CoverIn Part III we saw how the city sought to maintain the 1985 baseline of ~175 gallons per capita daily in the 1990 UWMP while population estimates increased. As a result we saw the projected supply in the plan jump significantly from the previous plan. We also found that the DWP heavily leveraged the projected 1990 supply in the groundwater and recycled categories using water it had no chance of getting. These factors continued into the 1995-2000 UWMP's. 

The 1995 UWMP - L.A.'s 3rd Water Plan
The 1995 UWMP should best be known by the city’s acquiescence that water supply had its limits. Population estimates from the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) did not climb as dramatically as they had in the 1990 plan but the increase from 3.85 million to 4.25 million by 2015 (9%) was still the driving factor.

With future growth estimates continuing to drive the supply requirement of more water, DWP planners were forced to set a new precedent by reducing the per capita supply from 177 gallons per capita to 150 gallons acknowledging that less water would be coming through the Los Angeles Aqueduct due to recent court ordered restrictions of Mono Basin water and at current allocations, future growth would have demanded ridiculously large amounts of water that couldn’t be met.

1995GPC
Figure 1 - Big jump to reduce per capita supply

If the DWP planners tried to sustain the 177 gallons per day cited in the 1990 plan, the projected supply in the new plan would have shot up to 757,000 for 2000 and risen to 886,000 acre feet per year (Af/y) by 2015!

Historically though, reducing the per capita supply to 150 gallons per day per capita would not be enough. At this allocation the DWP suggested that it would have 695,000 Af/y by 2005 and could gradually increase that to 750,000 Af/y by 2015 (Figure 1). But in the years following the approval of the plan, the actual supply figures that came in would demonstrate the DWP's failure to achieve these projections suggesting that there was far too much paper water in the projections to be viable.

DWP planners accepted that less water was going to be available through the aqueduct system and reduced the aqueduct supply by 20,000 Af/y to 360,000 Af/y in the 1995 plan.

1995PW
Fig. 2 - 1995 Projections vr. Supply

To offset the loss of aqueduct water, DWP planners suggested that they could increase the already large projections of the 1990 plans and increase the availability of recycled water to 38,000 Af/y, and groundwater to 152,000 Af/y.

Through the years though, none of these figures would ever be achieved. Recycled water averaged a mere 2,300 Af/y and groundwater averaged just 87,000 Af/y proving the plan wasn’t working.

The historical significance of the 1995 plan was that the DWP would only muster up an average of 638,490 Af/y (Figure 2). Far less than the 750,000 Af/y that it promised. Because of the paper water fueled growing deficit, the DWP would start prodding the public into reducing its demand using such schemes as tiered pricing, washer rebate programs and require that all homes install low-flow toilets before resale.

The 2000 UWMP - L.A.'s 4th Water Plan

2000GPC
Figure 3 - Lower per capita and rising demand

L.A.'s fourth water plan might best be known as having to largest projected supply that the DWP said it could meet of any of the city's UWMP's. This monster projection occurred even as the department further reduced the gallons per capita daily water supply. The reasons were due to estimated population projections supplied by SCAG.

The new SCAG population estimates started out at 4,035,305 by 2005 population and would grow to 4,856,887 by 2020. These new population figures when figured into the new per capita allocations created a demand that would skyrocket to almost 800,000 Af/y.

The 2000 UWMP lowered the 'year 2005 supply per capita' of the previous plan from 154 to 150 gallons per day and from their it would ratchet down the consumption further to 147 gallons per day by 2020. (Figure 3)

But the lower allocations would still generate a sharp rise in demand. The DWP said it could supply 718,000 Af/y of water in 2010 and sharply increase in to 799,000 Af/y by 2020. The increase though didn't come from increased recycle and groundwater.

Figure 4 - 2000 Projection vr. Supply

Perhaps realizing that developing a recycled water system and pumping more groundwater was not paying the dividends they predicted earlier, the city ended its long standing resistance to relying on pricier MWD water and would ratchet up purchases of water from 200,000 to 298,650 Af/y which would nearly equal the aqueduct supply level.

Planners were forced to lower the recycled water projections 28% from 38,000 to 29,350 Af/y. Groundwater projections fell only slightly from 152,000 to 150,000 Af/y but aqueduct projections fell significantly from 360,000 Af/y to 321,000 Af/y.

The historical significance of the 2000 UWMP was that the DWP would only be able to deliver an average of 617,000 Af/y from 2000 to 2014 which was well under the promised 757,000 Af/y by 2015 and light years from the 799,000 Af/y it said it would have in 2020 to meet the city’s growth. (Figure 4)

NEXT:  2005 and 2010 UWMP's

Promise of Backup Water Not Met by DWP

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Construction projects going through the city permit process are required to cite how much water demand they will impose on the city's water supply and whether the city has surplus water supplies to accommodate the project.

2010
2010 UWMP states that MWD would make up for city shortfalls.

This information is provided in the EIR (Environmental Impact Report) which is part of the permit package for the project. The EIR's have a section on 'Utilities' stating where this surplus water will come from. As evidence of sufficient surplus water, the EIR's refer you to the city's current UWMP as evidence. The UWMP also describes how it will meet demand should there be a shortages of city owned water. When water shortages occur the city's water plans state that they have access to MWD supplies that will meet the city's level of demand.

The chart below shows us that despite the UWMP's guarantee that the Metropolitan Water District will be able to provide sufficient water supply in dry years, the DWP has not been able to meet that guarantee since MWD supplies have come up short of the projections every year since 1990.

The deficit the city finds itself in is a result of this gap. Because this has been allowed to occur for twenty five years and never corrected in each subsequent UWMP,  we have to assume that these statements in the UWMP assuring that MWD will meet demand are mainly intended to facilitate approvals and nothing more. As such, it is a planned deficit.

MWD supplies have not been sufficient to meet the city's demands.
MWD supplies DWP water during shortages but has not been enough to meet the city's demands.

Dissecting L.A’s Paper Water – Groundwater

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Now that we find that the City of Los Angeles routinely props up its water portfolio using 'paper water' so where do we find it? We first find evidence of the city's reliance on paper water in the groundwater projections cited in each of the Urban Water Management Plans between 1985 and 2005.
GWprojA
Groundwater supply is just 67% of UWMP projections.
The chart at the right plots the gap between the actual groundwater supply the city had access to and the anticipated supplies that each UWMP projected. The gap between the two is the paper water that would be used to as evidence that medium and high density projects going through the planning process would have sufficient water when in fact they didn’t. The city routinely projected supplies that ranged from 103,000 AF to 155,000 AF during that period.  Including a brief period between 1997 and 2000 of exceptionally high pumping, the actual amount of well water produced by the city was 33% below expectations. Far below the city's expectations and glossy presentations that suggested that growing groundwater supply would help the city meet its needs and allow its growth ambitions. Despite the city's average of just 71,000 AF since 2001, the city's current 2010 water plan continues propping up it's paper water inventory citing that it should an average of 107,426 af/y in available groundwater supplies between the years 2020 and 2035. Between 2000 and 2014 the city's groundwater supply would remain flat at 71,059 af/y which is far below any of the past UWMP projections that ranged from 103,000 af/y to as high as 152,000 af/y. GWToTotal Paper Water This gap between 'projected or anticipated supply' and 'actual supply' is an unfortunate characteristic of the city's water supply. It's a promise spanning 5 water plans and 25 years that was used to mischaracterize the city's supply to approve high density development. The City's failure to meet groundwater projections stems primarily from the fact that it is just storage. The City of Los Angeles Stormwater Program reports that the city captures just 27,000 AF of water to recharge the underground storage. The reason for this can be found in Upper Los Angeles River Area Watermaster reports which state that "The continued growth of residential, commercial, and industrial developments has required that more water be imported to supplement the local groundwater supplies in ULARA over time. Imported supplies to ULARA are from the Los Angeles Aqueduct and from MWD". Because of the extent of development in the valley, much of today's potential groundwater supply is simply channeled into storm drains and down the LA River. Secondly, ULARA reports that many of the San Fernando Valleys groundwater pumps have been taken out of service due to groundwater contamination.

L.A.’s Paper Water Problem

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Part IV in a series describing L.A.’s water supply problems, the drought and the policies that produced it. L.A.'s PAPER WATER Urban Water Management Plans of 1990, 1995, 2000, & 2005 had all projected huge demand requirements and provided us with solutions on how it would met. However, as each superseding UWMP was approved, it left behind a growing legacy of plans with a history of projections that were never met. faucetOver time, it became apparent that this is not simply a miscalculation but likely an intentional effort by the city to mislead the public using ‘paper water’. Paper water is water that utilities claim they have access to, but is difficult or impossible to access for various reasons. You can't drink paper water or cook with it but you can make lots of promises with it. The 2009 California Water Plan Update describes such a scenario in an article titled Water for Growth (E. Hanak/PPIC) stating that "A majority of utilities reported considerable normal-year surpluses, both now and 20 years hence, raising the possibility that many are banking on “paper water” for their margin of comfort." Generally the City of Los Angeles hides its supply shortage behind promises of water that it could never actually deliver on such as groundwater, recycled water and LA Aqueduct water. Large Projects One very typical example where paper water was cited would be the massive Playa Vista development that was approved in the early 2000's. The project's water demand which was based on the 2000 UWMP stated: "LADWP anticipates annual water demand within the Department’s service area to increase by 2010 to between 718,000 AF (in a normal year) and 761,000 AF (in a dry year), which represents a demand increase of 5.7 percent to 12.1 percent, respectively, between 2002 and 2010.
2000PW
Fig 1 - Projected Supply v. Actual Supply
This increased demand in water use is accounted for in LADWP’s Final Year 2000 Urban Water Management Plan Update, and LADWP has identified various means and options for securing adequate water supplies to meet the needs anticipated for 2010, as well as through the year 2020. Ref: EIR No. ENV-2002-6129-EIR" However the anticipated annual supply of 718,000 AF never materialized by 2010 nor did the 757,000 AF promised by 2015 as shown in Figure 1 at the right. In 2010 the city water supply was 25% below the projection cited in the Playa Vista EIR at just 540,229 AF and it fell even further behind by 2015. The average yearly supply of 617,645 af/y between 2000 and 2014 was 23% below the projections 2015 projection. Neither aqueduct water, groundwater or recycled water projections were met. The promise of up to 799,000 af/y of water cited in this EIR is what we would call ‘paper water’. It's this promise of water that contributed to the approval of the project but it was water that can never be had.
2000uwmp
Fig 2 - The 2000 UWMP's Paper Water
This particular development is not an isolated situation. Literally every project in the city that has been approved since 1990 cites the inaccessible water in the city's UWMP. Prior and subsequent UWMP's also projected supply levels that could not be achieved. The 2005 water plan cited 705,000 AF this year and up to 776,000 AF by 2030. Even the current 2010 UWMP has similarly projected supplies in excess of 710,000 AF by 2035. The City of Los Angeles has not been able to produce water supplies in excess of 690,000 AF since 1989. Smaller Projects Benefit by Paper Water Large projects with 500 units or more are required by SB-221 to obtain written verification that long term water supply is available for the project. This written verification goes into a tedious analysis of the projects demand and then always comes to the conclusion based on the UWMP's paper water that "adequate water supplies would be available to meet the estimated water demands of the proposed developments..." The thousands of smaller projects with 499 units or less that are winding their way through the planning process are exempt from this formality.  They need only cite the current UWMP which includes all existing and planned future uses of the city's water supply then come to the same conclusion that "that adequate water supplies would be available to meet the estimated water demands of the proposed developments..." To date, literally every project approved since 1990, both small and large projects alike have been the beneficiary of paper water but it hasn't benefited residents. Paper Water may be Political Cover The city's most recent 2010 UWMP greatly lowered projections but that had not stopped or slowed down the approvals of large or small projects alike. The reason why could be found in a statement made by the DWP back in 1990 saying that approving projects is ultimately a "political decision to be decided by the Mayor and the City Council".  So it's likely that the water departments insistence on such large water supply projections year after year is to provide political cover to for approving all of the developments making their way through the planning process. In the 2009 California Water Update, the article Water For Growth alludes to that by noting "...even in jurisdictions with municipal water departments, elected officials may take a shorter-term view of resource adequacy than area residents do. If—as is often asserted—land-use authorities are aligned with predevelopment forces, they may be inclined to favor growth, even if it means higher costs (or a loss in property values) to the community down the road."  

L.A.’s First Water Plans – The 1985 & 1990 UWMP

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In 1983 the State of California passed the Urban Water Management Plan Act that required water suppliers to provide a water plan every five years. 1985UWMPCoverThe Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP) is rich in information as it identifies the agencies sources of water (aqueduct, groundwater, imported), amounts of water available from these sources, methods of conveyance, current and future water uses, projected demand, current and future conservation methods, demographics, population density and growth, housing mix, commercial/industrial/governmental demand, etc. The importance of the UWMP is that it is used as a guideline for making public decisions concerning water and is cited in planning documents, water supply assessments. But the UWMP can also be seriously misused when 'paper water' is inserted into the plans which provides a misleading assessment of the water supply or when city officials simply rubber stamp the findings without any sort of reassessment given current water supply availability. The City of L.A.'s UWMP's are both fascinating and disappointing in that they paint a picture of great expectations, a long term failure to meet demand and worse, a misleading assessment of the city's true water supply. What follows is a retrospective look back at previous UWMP's. What we find is a blueprint to a permanent water deficit. The 1985 UWMP - L.A.'s First Water Plan
Figure 1
The 1985 UWMP was the first state mandated water plan published by LADWP. This first time report was an honest and useful assessment of the city's water supply at the time. The plan assumed the city would receive a constant 470,000 Af/y supply through the Los Angeles aqueduct, 103,000 Af/y of groundwater and a small but growing reliance on MWD water between 1986 through 2010. From a planning perspective the most important part of the UWMP are the tables that show the projected water requirements at 5, 10, 15, and 20 increments for average years. The tables break down how much water the city assumes it will receive through the aqueduct, local groundwater, MWD, and recycled water. It's important that these projections meet the actual supply 5, 10, 15, and 20 years later because they are used in environmental impact reports and water supply assessments as guidelines for future development. If the actual supply doesn't meet the projections then we can assume we are creating a water supply deficit. (more…)